OT: PDA decline and soul searching

[JMckie]

Study (http://www.palminfocenter.com/view_story.asp?ID=7650) Predicts Steep Decline for PDA Market

Apparently some are willing to pay US$3,500 (http://www.instat.com/catalog/Ccatalogue.asp?id=27#IN0501831ID) for this information. :confused:

Articles like this make me reflect. What is wrong with PDA enthusiasts (including me)? Why am I not plugged in to whatever trend is apparently going on? Am I getting out of touch with what is "hip" and cool? Signs of aging?

I would like to understand why PDAs, which seemed like a great idea to everybody a few years ago, is no longer such a good idea? I wonder if that $3,500 has an answer to this question.

[Curious Cat]

The old advertising saying applies here. "You can never go wrong by underestimating the intelligence of the buying public." (I changed a couple of words)

I work and live with mostly non-technical type people and when I whip out my iQue everyone is impressed but most conclude, too quickly, that they would never be able to figure out how to use it. I've seen people who bought the old Sharp organizers, learn how to put in a few names, never how to change batteries and when it goes dead they're pissed off and throw it away. I see almost all of my fellow workers on a computer at work and unless it's an application they were taught and need to understand to do their job they don't know that the computer can do anything other then to get you on the Internet. Have you ever been working on a document on a laptop only to have someone ask how you are hooked up to the Internet? When you reply that you are not on the Internet they don't understand how you could be doing anything. My point is that with WIFI, cheap laptops with big (relatively) screens and the, Internet is everything attitude, most people have they don't see the reason for carrying around a small "complicated" device. The only trend that runs counter to this is a device like the Treo, since they have to carry a cell phone anyway, and this is why I think Palm is putting so many eggs in that basket.

[Moose Man]

Lets not forget that the PDA started with the Apple Newton and then the folks at Palm Pilot took the real ball and ran with it. Then comes along GiantSoft and starts up with the Windows CE devices and then Pocket PC's then second generation PPC.

The PDA is transitioning to a more converged device because the technology is getting smaller. When the Palm V came out it set the industry a fire with sales.

The Treo did the same thing when it came out in the 600 form factor.

The next gen will be a slightly smaller form factor with some sort of built in GPS but it will still have a PDA function, IMHO. It will also have the ability to stream downloads from Napster and play them via some stereo headphones.

Are we, the older members of this forum, becoming jaded to the newer technologies? I think not, we've just come to realize that after so many years of getting ahead of the curve, we've become more complacent and understand that we can't possibly stay in front of it. We will continue to ride the wave.....but we may choose to stay in the pipe rather than in the whitewater.

I'm not so certain, J, that it's a sign of aging as much as a sign of intelligence that technology does not matter......people do and that's why this forum has done so well.

If you were to have posted this on several other forums that I can think of (and frequent) you've been blasted for even thinking it since it's off topic.

Don't worry about aging.....and don't worry about staying 'hip and cool'.....because your cool enough.

And that's my philosophy lesson for today. ;)

[NewQ]

Guys, I agree.
I have been teaching technicians in a fairly small industry (Fire Alarm and Security) for almost 13yrs. 13yrs ago, the avg tech would press a button on "this thing" we called a computer, to turn it on and when the DOS prompt appeared they were lost. We taught them how to use a program of ours to program our equipment and I think that was all they new about new technology. We were THE cutting edge back then and even earlier, as our competitor's equipment was not programmable. If some of the techs were of the baby boomer era, it was a form of "magic" ("FM" Bokkie) that we could do such things. If they belonged to Gen-x or were more savvy, they got into it and they yearned for more and more and these type of techs helped take our company to where it is today (we were just purchased by GE).

I'm 49 years old and have been into technology my whole life and have been "spreading" my knowlegde and experience for 23 years now. I know many 49 year olds however, that are just now buying their first PC and only so they can communicate with their kids and grandkids via "this thing called email". If they didn't have to use it in their jobs, like what CC is saying, they didn't have any reason to go near it. Most will still go out of their way to avoid it because "it will be so hard to learn". My neighbor is now 67 and he bought his first computer 6 years ago and has recently replaced it (with my help) with a smoker P4 with all the bells and whistles AND ALL HE DOES IS SIT IN FRONT OF IT AND READ WHATEVER HE CAN FIND ON THE MSN WEB SITE. He doesn't have the savvy nor the desire to do anything else with this smoker PC. Not even type a letter!! I have to do any research for him because he doesn't have the desire to learn. If his cable connection is down, he assumes that his PC is broken and starts calling me. I slowly educate him but it's sad.

What I'm seeing today is that every tech that comes to class, with the exception of the ones my age :( , are computer savvy and computer literacy is, for the most part, not an issue anymore for us. I do not see a lot of PDAs among these techs though. One in 25 or 30, maybe higher. I do see them into cell phones though - everyone has one and it is paid for by their company. They know all the features of these because it is now as common as their belt. Including more technolgy on their cellphone may or may not be welcomed by these users because if it rings, this means they have to go to work.
These next generation techs are young, technology minded and service oriented people and most must travel to some unfamiliar job site to do their service call many times each day. I would think that they, for one example, should have been where the marketing of the Q should have been. Every one of the techs I show my Q to fall in love with it right away and know how much easier just the routing part alone would make their life. When I show them that they could also log their service calls into them and schedule stuff and.... they're drooling. However, for a work tool that they would have to buy on their own, the drooling stops.

The report stated that GPS oriented devices are part of the future (as we already knew) and I think Garmin could have sold and still could sell, a boat load more if they would have marketed it to the right people (the service industry, for one). I read a lot of magazines in my travels and I have yet to see an ad for a Q or M5. (I do see 2610/20 type ads though.) Marketing to the right sectors would prolong the life of these "PDA things".

[Ken in Regina]

Originally posted by Curious Cat
The old advertising saying applies here. "You can never go wrong by underestimating the intelligence of the buying public." (I changed a couple of words)

CC, that's spot on. And it's really just a restatement of P.T. Barnum's old adage: "There's a sucker born every minute."

[Moose Man]

Here is an article (http://www.**********.com/default.asp?newsID=2437) that talks about auto switching to a LAN from Satellite for going indoors and using your XM or Sirius system......bundle that will a software program and antenna for the Que.....?:eek:

[Franklee]

I'm not the brightest tecnikally and I figured out the ique pretty easy. Who wants to carry around a laptop. You just need to get more people to try them out and they will want them. Maybe they should teach it in school like they do with computers.

[si4xp]

If Garmin were to add cell phone to iQue, I will jump ship asap - why carry two gadgets when you could do with one. Convergence is the lure factor because it is an improvement over the pure play PDA, as Treo is.

One thing is for sure - with more convergence especially having Wi-fi and BT, we would have be far more security conscious to protect the personal info on the machine. Unfortunately, security is not a forte for average users of these devices, which gives the hackers and thugs low hanging fruits galore to harvest as never before.

[apersson850]

I've nothing against a phone in my PDA, but I wouldn't like that as my only phone. Frequently, I'd like to have a phone with me, but nothing that big as a PDA. On the other hand, I wouldn't like to have a phone, with a PDA (and a GPS, of course), with a screen any smaller than the iQue's. Since the iQue front is almost only screen (and a few buttons, which are handy, so I don't want to sacrifice them either), that puts a limit to the smallest possible size.

[Stirling]

Personally, the idea of converging much more isn't that appealing to me. I like having the GPS in my PDA, but if I had my primary cell phone in the same device it would take away from the functionality of both. I use my cell and the GPS at the same time quite a bit. If they were the same device, I can't see how you wouldn't loose the ability to do both at the same time.

[JMckie]

Originally posted by apersson850
I've nothing against a phone in my PDA, but I wouldn't like that as my only phone. Frequently, I'd like to have a phone with me, but nothing that big as a PDA. On the other hand, I wouldn't like to have a phone, with a PDA (and a GPS, of course), with a screen any smaller than the iQue's. Since the iQue front is almost only screen (and a few buttons, which are handy, so I don't want to sacrifice them either), that puts a limit to the smallest possible size.

I agree with this. It doesn't have to be your only phone. It is going to happen anyway. Already there are cell phones with GPS capability. It will happen. The potential of getting up-to-date data from a central server (traffic, road closures, weather, POIs, even maps) is too compelling for it not to happen. In 15 years, we will be laughing at the idea that we once carried out-of-date maps on our GPS devices.

But I would like to have a converged device, even with the compromises. I wouldn't like a smaller screen than the iQue has, because reading eBooks is one of my main uses of this device.

They haven't worked out the bugs, but with a BT headset, you should be able to navigate and use the cell phone at the same time.

[apersson850]

That can be solved by a suitable wireless handsfree set. Communicates via bluetooth with the PDA/GPS/Phone. But I still don't want to carry that rather big combo unit in all these instances, where I do want to bring a phone.

Sorry, my response took an hour to write, so it came in a bit late. Thus I merely duplicated Joseph's idea.

[reinbeau]

As I've said many times before, I have no interest in having a PDA cell phone combination. I don't even want wireless. Web browsing on that small screen does nothing for me. I sit in front of a desktop all day long, if I want to look at something I do it with the big monitor. My cell phone is in my purse where it belongs unless I'm using it :) My PDA is sitting in the cradle on the desk with Datebk5 up. Life is good :D

[gl18_rider]

I don't need to surf the web on my phone or pda. But I wouldn't mind having a combo phone/pda/gps. One of the cell phone companies put out a phone/pda a couple of years ago and I was interested until I saw their price and then the monthly fee. Outrageous!! Then the Que came out and all was well with the world again, at least my little corner of it. For me it would mean not having to carry around another device.

Interesting conversation piece.

[Ken in Regina]

Originally posted by si4xp
If Garmin were to add cell phone to iQue, I will jump ship asap - why carry two gadgets when you could do with one. Convergence is the lure factor because it is an improvement over the pure play PDA, as Treo is.
You've hit the nail on the head ... sort of. But you should have said " ... IF it is an improvement over the pure play...". It more often is not an improvement.

The essence of the convergence is that the combined functions need to work, in combination, at least as well as they did individually. But to attract most of us to spend more money for the converged functions immediately, and toss what we are currently using, there must be something more. Something about the convergence that makes it more than the sum of the individual functions.

A small illustration on the iQue is the ability to put locations (GPS function) into the address book (PDA function) and use them between the two domains seamlessly.

We have heard from others how frustrating it is when the convergence is provided in a way that does not make it as seamless as the iQue, or not possible at all.

So, the issue is not now, and has never been, whether convergence is good or bad, desirable or not. It's all in the packaging .. how it's put together in the final product. That is the single factor that will make or break a particular product or category of products.

That's why multi-purpose phones will never work in a conventional telephone form factor. It's absolutely silly to try to do anything but make a phone call with a 12-button keypad. Maintaining a simple phone book - name and phone number - in the phone is at best a frustrating exercise. Trying to do anything else with that 12-button interface is a non-starter for most of us.

Once you make the screen large enough for any applications other than making phone calls, you change the form factor enough that it eliminates one of the attractions (for many) of the latest teeny-tiny cell-phones. By comparison, the Treo 600 is a hulk .. a Lincoln Navigator compared to a McLaren F1.

Converged application platforms - both the software functionality and the physical form factor - is an interesting game, but one with a long history that is fraught with far more failure than success. And one where there is rarely a "universal" product. It is predominantly a niche market game. In addition to finding a combination of functionality and form factor that makes any sense at all, it's a game of, then, finding a niche market that is large enough to make money from.

[NewQ]

If the Q had just gotten a SDIO slot in the beginning, all this would be a moot point. Apps would have been written for the many SDIO cards available and each of us could have configure ours the way we wanted it (or not).

[Curious Cat]

Originally posted by NewQ
If the Q had just gotten a SDIO slot in the beginning, all this would be a moot point. Apps would have been written for the many SDIO cards available and each of us could have configure ours the way we wanted it (or not).

I'm curious if the few iQue 3200 users have found anything useful for their SDIO?

[Moose Man]

Originally posted by Curious Cat
I'm curious if the few iQue 3200 users have found anything useful for their SDIO?

At least with SDIO on a 3200 you can attempt to shock your kids to prevent them from using the internet with their Xbox units. :D

I think the biggest SDIO feature would have been a GPS receiver but that's a mute point. :D

[Curious Cat]

Originally posted by Moose Man
...

I think the biggest SDIO feature would have been a GPS receiver but that's a mute point. :D

Actually, listening to MP3's on a iQue 3200 is a mute point. :D

[Bokkie]

Originally posted by Curious Cat
Actually, listening to MP3's on a iQue 3200 is a mute point. :D

A subtle comment, Messieur Chat.

There are however, regulations that make it a criminal offence to point a mute at anyone.

Three points, and you are muted.

[NewQ]

It's easy to say that "I would never use this or that" but you really don't know unless you have it available. At my workplace, we have a new product coming out soon that will allow you monitor one of our panels via web based client and has a PDA formatted GUI available. I thought that would be cool to use but then remembered my Q can't even spell web (also it requires a PPC PDA :( ). The M5 also has the bells and whistles that "could be". We'll have to wait and see how that product matures.

[Curious Cat]

Here's a convergent product just announced.

Click me (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=581&e=1&u=/nm/20050309/tc_nm/tech_korea_samsung_dc)

[Curious Cat]

Originally posted by Bokkie
A subtle comment, Messieur Chat.

....

It takes a warped mind to understand my sense of humor. :D

How's things going on the other side?

[apersson850]

Yes, and an English native, I think. What's "point a mute"? I do know "mute", but it doesn't make any real sense in this context. Not to me. Yet.

[Chan Eil Fhios]

It's a pun on the similarity of the words moot and mute. If a point is moot, it is pointless. If a point is mute, it is silent.:)

[Ken in Regina]

And a mute is also a person without ability to speak, thus Bokkie's "impolite to point a mute".